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This paper analyzes the factors influencing cash flows and divides them as certainty factors and uncertainty factors; it mainly discusses the uncertainty factors causing change of cash flow. For the characteristics of uncertainty of cash flows in real estate project, we adopted probability theory and mathematical statistics to balance and estimate the cash flows. Then the computer simulation method for uncertainty factors based on Beta distribution and normal distribu- tion is proposed, with the prediction method of cash inflow and outflow. Illustrated by the case of actual real estate pro- jects, we provided financial evaluation by traditional evaluation methods and simulation methods of uncertainty factors and compared the evaluation results. The experiment results show that the improved method has more scientific and accu- rate performance in basic data, compared to the traditional method, and it can acquire more reliable Evaluation results.

Real Estate Project Financial Evaluation Based on Cash Flow Estimation