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According to abrasion process of machine equipment parts of overhead line system for traction power supply and characters of wear-out failures, considering on factor changes of all kinds of production conditions in practical opera- tion, set permit of abrasion loss in coordinating with normal distribution, and abrasion loss of parts as random variables, and then establish the relation between maintenance costs and random variable of abrasion loss with the principle of low- est maintenance cost, thus concluding with the optimum maintenance abrasion value. Then the functional relation between abrasion loss and running time can be concluded with the gray model, thus the decision model in the optimum period with the lowest maintenance cost can be concluded.

High-Speed Railway Traction Power Supply Equipment Condition-Based Maintenance Decision Model Based on Abrasion Analysis