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A coupled general circulation model, MIROC3.2, was used to investigate the impacts of global warming on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The model has relatively fine resolution which captures the atmosphere and ocean dynamics well. The model shows an ENSO-like warm trend in the tropical Pacific under the greenhouse warming; eastern half of the equatorial Pacific warms more and equatorial easterly weakens. Superimposed on such trend is the increase in amplitude of interannual ENSO variability. A sensitivity analysis shows that ocean, rather than the atmosphere, is responsible for the strengthening. The greenhouse warming tends to increase the surface waters more, leading to strengthened subsurface vertical stratification in the equatorial ocean. This appears to be responsible for the increase in ENSO amplitude. The strengthening of the subsurface stratification is greater in the western half of the equatorial Pacific where the unit amount of surface wind stress change tends to accompany in-situ subsurface temperature anomalies greater under the warmed climate.

Changes in ENSO in Response to Greenhouse Warming as Simulated by the CCSR/NIES/FRCGC Coupled GCM