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Nine years of historical yield, meteorological, and soil data were input into a soil water balance simulation model to generate a daily soil water status value. The values for the number of days and millimeters of deficit (duration and magnitude) were grouped into trimesters and used to estimate yield. The greatest frequency of days with plant moisture stress occurred during the January–March and the October–December periods. The greatest magnitude of stress occurred during the January–March period. Annual coffee yields were best estimated by the model that incorporated variables for the previous year including, April–June deficit magnitude duration, July–September deficit magnitude duration, and the previous year's yield. Model testing with data from nine cultivars over an 8-year period showed that the model estimated yields with a mean error of 17%. The use of this model permitted yield estimation 2 months before anthesis and 8 months before the start of harvest.

A Model for Estimating the Yield of Coffee (Coffea arabica)