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A stepwise multiple regression analysis, using payment by processors as the dependent variable (Y) and numerous physical and chemical characteristics as the independent variables (X), demonstrated that the primary factor determining 'Man- zanillo' olive (Olea europaea L.) value at harvest was size. Optimal crop value corre- lated strongly with the combined percentage of standard, medium, large, and extra- large olives; R' values were 0.93***, 0.93***, and 0.42 (NS) in 1984, 1985, and 1986, respectively. As the harvest season progressed, increased percentages of olives within these size classifications, not weight increases of individual olives within the size cate- gories, produced the increase in value. Individual olives within size categories main- tained the same weight through the harvest season, regardless of tree crop load. The best criterion for predicting optimal harvest time "is the total percentage of standard, medium, large, and extra-large olives. Almost all of California's 'Manzanillo' olive crop is destined for the processed, so- called "ripe-black" market. Although the name ripe-black implies a mature, tree-rip- ened fruit, the olives are harvested when im- mature. A fully tree-ripened olive is black and soft, deteriorates when processed, and is considered-a cull, suitable only for olive oil (Hartmann et al., 1959). As the fruit is immature when harvested, reliable indicators of optimal harvest time for ripe-black processing olives are ambiguous. Previous attempts at developing harvest ma- turity indices for the industry have been un-

Using Fruit Size to Predict Harvest Timing of California `Manzanillo' Olives for Ripe-black Processing