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The maximum design streamflow can be estimated based on a series of historical streamflows or a precipitation series and its transformation into flow by hydrological models of the rainfall-runoff type. There are few long, stationary flow series available for urban basins. Since the rainfall data are more plentiful, and present longer series, the latter method is more widely used in practice. This, however, generates uncertainties in the response due to: (a) difficulty in evaluating temporal and RBRH Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos Volume 6 n.1 Jan/Mar 2001, 29-41 41 spatial distribution of rainfall: (b) variability of model parameters according to the basin and initial conditions; (c) and imperfections in the structure of the hydrological model. Thus the risk of precipitation is not the same as the risk of flow generated by the model. In this study, the uncertainties of temporal distribution of precipitation and parameters of the IPH II model are analyzed in estimating the design hydrograph. When using the value of maximum streamflow or volume in defining or sizing, the designer will base his work not on an uncertain point value, but on a confidence interval, with the expected value, which is an estimate of the uncertainties found. The method was applied to a 40 km2 urban basin in Porto Alegre for two scenarios of urban development for which there were observed data: 19781982 and 1995-1997. The results showed that the confidence interval is significant, as a result of all the uncertainties identified, but provides a reasonable estimate of the design flow as compared with the data observed for partial series of maximum flow. Key-words: design hydrograph; uncertainty; urban.

Estimativa do Hidrograma de projeto com base na incerteza dos parâmetros do modelo