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The aim of this paper is to present both the stochastic simulation of contaminant transport and the probabilistic human health risk assessment due to ingestion of contaminated groundwater. The study was based on a real case of soil and groundwater contamination. The stochastic approach consisted of establishing several solutions for the contaminant transport problem, using various equiprobable solutions to the flux problem. The flux problem solutions were determined through the generation of hydraulic conductivity random fields. Two hundred solutions to the transport problem were established for a rectangular 2 km x 5 km study area, discretized into 2500 cells. The contamination source is represented by a pond, used in the past for industrial effluent disposal. Due to the characteristic of the contamination source, two scenarios were analyzed: rainy season and dry season. The basic difference between the two scenarios is the pond area which decreases in the dry season, resulting in an exposed contaminated soil area. The approach allowed the definition of frequency distributions to both benzene concentration and risk for the study area The results showed a probability of exceeding the risk-limit (one additional case of cancer in a exposed population of one million people) of 4.9% for a rainy season scenario and 17.4% for the dry season scenario, considering a receptor located 50 m from the contaminated pond and a time horizon of 30 years. Key-words: human health risk assessment, groundwater contamination, contaminant transport, stochastic simulation.

rbrh

Avaliação do Risco à Saúde Humana Devido à Ingestão de Água Subterrânea Contaminada: Parte 2 - Simulação Estocástica do Transporte e Avaliação Probabilística do Risco