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An Analysis on North Sulawesi’s Local Tax Potential to Strengthening Its Fiscal CapacityDespite recording double digit growth since 2005, North Sulawesi’s tax to GDRP ratio has been fairly stable at about 0,24% on average (6,89% to total revenue). This paper cataloques a range of factors that may account for the local tax potential of North Sulawesi’s to strengthen its fiscal capacity. Calculation on local tax potency especially on restaurant tax confirm gap between real revenues and its potency about Rp1.06 billion. By using panel data through econometric methodologies, the paper assesses the statistical significance of a number of potential determinants of local tax revenue, using data from 15 regions in North Sulawesi over the period 2009–2014. The results indicate that, among the variables that exert a statistically significant influence on local tax potential are per capita GDRP, agriculture sectors, and high school number, while the employee has no statistically significance.Keywords: Local Tax; Tax Potential; Fiscal Capacity; Panel Data  AbstrakMeskipun terjadi pertumbuhan sebesar dua digit sejak tahun 2005, rasio pajak daerah terhadap PDRB di Sulawesi Utara cukup stabil di 0,25% secara rata-rata (6,89% terhadap total pendapatan). Penelitian ini mengkaji faktor-faktor yang dapat menjelaskan potensi pajak di Sulawesi Utara yang dapat memperkuat kapasitas fiskalnya. Berdasarkan perhitungan potensi pajak daerah, khususnya pajak restoran, didapatkan bahwa penerimaan riil masih berada di bawah potensi sebesar 1.061 miliar rupiah. Analisis data panel menggunakan data 15 kabupaten dan kota di Sulawesi Utara selama periode tahun 2009–2014. Ditemukan bahwa sejumlah faktor penentu potensi pajak daerah yaitu pendapatan per kapita, sektor pertanian, dan jumlah siswa SMA, sedangkan jumlah pekerja tidak signifikan.

Analisis Potensi Pajak Daerah untuk Peningkatan Kapasitas Fiskal Kabupaten dan Kota di Sulawesi Utara