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Only a few successful new product development (NPD) projects are continuously supported by the firm when they are expected to assure profitability in the market. The profitability of a project is measured as profit ratio (PR), the profit is divided by the cost. The profit figure is changed depending on either internal risks or uncertainties occurring externally. More risks require higher response costs to them and uncontrollable uncertainties affect NPD projects either positively or negatively. In this study, a PR model is developed to predict the profitability of a project at a given time. The model minimizes the response cost computed under two extreme response strategies, such as “Avoid” and “Acceptance” for the internal threats. Also, the model reflects the sales volume changes due to external uncertainties. The linear programming (LP) method determines the optimal probability of the response strategy under three scenarios of defining the relationship between risk avoidance and risk acceptance. It can be utilized to make a GO/NOGO decision on the project based on the prediction results at any gate of the NPD process. The solving procedure is provided to apply the developed model for real cases.

Profitability Prediction Model for NPD Projects Under Risk