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Subduction of Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate has formed three thrust faults along Himalayas. Due to continuous shortening, many earthquakes have occurred in the past causing massive deaths and destructions showing that earthquakes are the greatest threat. Seismic hazard of the central Himalayan region has been examined based upon kernel density function method. Faults are so nearer that it is difficult to judge which earthquake belongs to which fault and even some parts of the faults do not hold earthquakes, and usual method of assigning the earthquakes to the nearest fault developing magnitude-frequency relationship is not applicable. Thus, seismic hazard is estimated considering area sources with different densities at each location based upon historical earthquakes using kernel density functions which account both earthquake sizes and numbers. Fault is considered as one earthquake with its highest magnitude at centre when calculating density but does not aid in earthquake data base for recurrence relationship. Since there are no specific attenuation laws developed for the Himalayan region, five attenuation laws developed for other subduction zones are selected and used giving equal weight to all to minimize the uncertainties. Then, probabilistic spectra for various natural periods at Kathmandu are calculated and plotted.

Updating Probabilistic Seismic Intensity at Kathmandu after 2015 Gorkha Earthquake