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Purpose/Objectives: Since the start of the Syrian war, a significant population has moved out of the Syrian Republic into its neighborhood environs. Turkey has had a significant effect on its health system and society, as a significant new number has entered the Turkish society, increasingly using the Turkish healthcare system. Our aim is not only to numerically identify the size of the effect to the Turkish system, but to identify the domestic resources that allow the Turkish healthcare system and society to build up resilience against the significant health demand shock. The main objectives of this study is 1) To understand whether there is a complementarity between the earlier efforts in the Turkish health system and the current capabilities that is necessary to meet the Syrian Populations Health Needs. 2) To understand if the newly revamped Turkish Primary Healthcare System Provide a crucial buffer for the negative congestion effects that could have been caused by such a significant and relatively unhealthy refugee population being integrated into the health system, at a relatively rapid pace.

Predicting the Resilience of the Health Care System to New Arrivals: The Case of the Public Health System of Turkey