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This article is devoted to the forecast of the Africa Cup of Nations 2019football tournament. It is based on a Poisson regression model that includesthe Elo points of the participating teams as covariates and incorporatesdifferences of team-specific skills. The proposed model allows predictions interms of probabilities in order to quantify the chances for each team to reacha certain stage of the tournament. Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimatethe outcome of each single match of the tournament and hence to simulate thewhole tournament itself. The model is fitted on all football games on neutralground of the participating teams since 2010.

Prediction Model for the Africa Cup of Nations 2019 via Nested Poisson Regression