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It is estimated that emissions from road transport contribute 17% of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (1). Regulations coming into force in Europe and in the U.S.A. are seeking to change this. In December 2008, the European Parliament approved a directive to reduce the average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars to 130 g km by 2015, with a three-year phase-in period. Emissions will be reduced by a further 10 g km through external measures including the increased use of biofuels, lower rolling resistance tyres and efficiency improvements to auxiliary devices such as air conditioning units. Overall, the 120 g km target represents an improvement in fuel economy of about 25% from current levels (2). In the U.S.A., where vehicles have traditionally been much larger and less fuel efficient than in European markets, President Obama has unveiled an ambitious plan to improve the fuel economy of passenger cars and light trucks in the country to an average of 35.5 U.S. miles per gallon (mpg) by 2016, from the current 25 U.S. mpg average (3). While there are longer-term clean transport options in development, such as electric and fuel cell vehicles, three different engine technologies are seen to be crucial in improving fuel consumption, and thus lowering CO2 output to meet these 2015 and 2016 targets. These technologies are diesel engines, downsized turbocharged gasoline engines combined with direct injection, and hybrid gasolineor diesel-electric vehicles. Each of these three technologies will have a different impact on platinum group metals (pgms) use. Diesel vehicles already account for over half of new vehicles sold in Europe, and this high share is expected to be maintained over the next decade. However, with improvements in gasoline direct injection (GDi) engines and greater numbers of vehicle manufacturers offering this technology, it is likely that we will see more of these vehicles on European roads in future. Some estimates put penetration of GDi engines as high as 28% of the gasoline vehicle market in Europe by 2010 (4). In the U.S.A., increasing uptake of GDi vehicles is also expected. However, diesel sales are currently low, at around 5% of overall light vehicle sales. While there is potential for some growth in this market share, the main focus for automakers in the region is on gasoline-electric hybrid powertrain development.

Final Analysis: The Impact of CO<SUB>2</SUB> Legislation on PGM Demand in Autocatalysts