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1 RESUMO O objetivo deste trabalho foi simular a produtividade potencial de colmo e de acucar da cultura da cana-de-acucar ( Saccharum officinarum L. ) no Nordeste (Petrolina-PE e Teresina-PI), analisando quatro variedades em diferentes epocas de plantio, em dois ambientes: sequeiro e irrigado.  O modelo de simulacao adotado foi o DSSAT/CANEGRO (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) e as quatro variedades de cana-de-acucar avaliadas foram: RB86 7515, CTC 4, CTC 7 e CTC 20 (todas em ciclo de 1,5 ano). Os resultados obtidos foram submetidos a analise de variância e as medias comparadas pelo teste de Tukey, a 5% de probabilidade. Recomenda-se o plantio em marco para Teresina, PI. Em Petrolina, PE, o plantio em sequeiro nao e indicado devido ao deficit hidrico prolongado por todo o ano. Em ambiente irrigado, nao houve diferenca da produtividade de colmo em funcao da epoca de plantio, para todas as variedades nas regioes avaliadas. As produtividades de colmos e de acucar foram sempre maiores no ambiente irrigado quando comparado com o de sequeiro, em todas as localidades e em todas as variedades avaliadas. O modelo de simulacao gerou boa estimativa da produtividade de colmos e de acucar quando comparado aos dados experimentais de Teresina, PI. Palavras - chave: Modelagem, Irrigacao, Rendimento, Acucar. GOMES, A. W. A; SAAD, J. C. C; BARROS, A. C. SIMULATION OF SUGAR CANE  ( Saccharum officinarum L.) PRODUCTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL BY THE DSSAT MODEL. 2 ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to simulate the potential   stem and sugar yield  of sugar cane ( Saccharum officinarum L .) in the Northeastern Brazil (Petrolina-PE and Teresina-PI) and analyze 4 varieties in different planting seasons in two environments: irrigated and rainfed cultivars.  The model of simulation was DSSAT/CANEGRO (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) and the four sugar cane varieties  were as follows:   RB86 7515, CTC 4, CTC 7 and CTC 20 (all in 1.5 year cycle). Analysis of variance was performed on the results and means were compared using the Tukey test with probability level at 5%.    March is the recommended month for planting in Teresina, PI. In Petrolina, PE, rainfed planting is not advisable because of the extended  water deficit all year long. In an irrigated environment, no difference was found concerning stem yield as a function of planting season, for all varieties in the study regions. The stem and sugar yields were always higher in irrigated environment as compared with those in rainfed environment  in all municipalities and study varieties. The simulation model provided good estimate of stem and sugar yields   as compared with experimental data in Teresina, PI. Keywords: modeling, irrigation, yield, sugar Palavras - Chave: Modelagem, Irrigacao, Produtividade, Cana-de-Acucar.

SIMULAÇÃO DA PRODUTIVIDADE DE CANA-DE-AÇÚCAR (Saccharum officinarum L.) NA REGIÃO NORDESTE DO BRASIL, UTILIZANDO O MODELO DSSAT