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The Taihang Mountain region, known as “the North China Water Tower”, is an important water source guarantee for the Jing-Jin-Ji Urban Agglomeration. Recently, a dramatic reduction of runoff has seriously threatened to the regional ecological security. Quantitative attribution of such remarkable reduction in runoff is important for designing sustainable watershed management strategies in the changing environment. This study selected three typical basins in the north, middle and south regions, the Zhangfang, Weishui and Guantai basins, to quantitatively attribute the reduction in runoff to climate change and human activities by using the physics-based Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT). The results suggested that the annual runoff of three basins all decreased by over 60% since the change-point year of 1983, 1975 and 1973. Based on the SWAT model, the contribution rates of human activities are 54.19%, 60.16% and 68.39% for Zhangfang, Weishui and Guantai basins, respectively. Additionally, the contribution rates of climate change are 45.81%, 39.84% and 31.61%. The increased contribution rate of human activities from north to south indicates the gradually intensifying anthropogenic influence, which is reflected in water consumption.

QUANTIFYING THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES TO THE DRAMATIC REDUCTION IN RUNOFF IN THE TAIHANG MOUNTAIN REGION, CHINA