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With the intensification of greenhouse effect, the global average temperature gradually increases, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration has exceeded 400 ppm. It has been a global consensus to reduce carbon emissions and the impact of the greenhouse effect. However, researches are rare on how to develop a reasonable emission reduction target and distribute funds in maintaining sustainable development. Based on the system dynamics method in the environmental system, we took a macro approach to simulate the trends of CO2 amount, CO2 concentration and temperature change in the next 5 decades. Through sensitivity analysis, we found anthropogenic CO2 emissions as the major factor influencing the above trends. The iteration result at the step size of -0.4% showed that the -3.2% CO2 emission reduction rate can achieve the Paris Agreement goal. On this foundation, we calculated the future amount of global CO2 emission reduction and its investment and depict the latter, which provides reference for relevant sectors to formulate CO2 emission reduction policies.

SYSTEM DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF GREENHOUSE EFFECT BASED ON CARBON CYCLE AND PREDICTION OF CARBON EMISSIONS