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Objective:   Determining the factors associated with new-onset pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is important for improving the current prevention strategies and for a better understanding of the disease.     Design:   To study the factors (clinical, circulating protein and genetic) associated with new onset pre-diabetes and T2D in an initially healthy (without diabetes) populational familial cohort with a long follow-up (STANISLAS cohort).     Methods:   A total of 1506 participants attended both the visit 1 and visit 4, separated by ≈20 years. Over 400 proteins, GWAS and genetic associations were studied using models adjusted for potential confounders. Both prospective (V1 to V4) and cross-sectional (V4) analyses were performed.     Results:   People who developed pre-diabetes ( n  = 555) and/or T2D ( n  = 73) were older, had higher BMI, blood pressure, glucose, LDL cholesterol, and lower eGFR. After multivariable selection, PAPP-A (pappalysin-1) was the only circulating protein associated with the onset of both pre-diabetes and T2D with associations persisting at visit 4 (i.e. ≈20 years later). FGF-21 (fibroblast growth factor 21) was a strong prognosticator for incident T2D in the longitudinal analysis, but not in the cross-sectional analysis. The heritability of the circulating PAPP-A was estimated at 44%. In GWAS analysis, the SNP rs634737 was associated with PAPP-A both at V1 and V4. External replication also showed lower levels of PAPP-A in patients with T2D.     Conclusions:   The risk of developing pre-diabetes and T2D increases with age and with features of the metabolic syndrome. Circulating PAPP-A, which has an important genetic component, was associated with both the development and presence of pre-diabetes and T2D.

Circulating plasma proteins and new-onset diabetes in a population-based study: proteomic and genomic insights from the STANISLAS cohort