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How to stimulate technical progress development among provinces is of great significance in order for China to achieve high-quality economic development. Spatial statistical methods are applied to analyze their spatial characteristics of technical progress and its influential effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Results are as follows: (1) Moran index and Moran scatter diagram are used to analyze spatial distribution features among provinces in terms of technical progress. It presents a significant, positive spatial cluster state and is dominated by the ‘Lower-Lower’ (L-L) type. Spatial spillover effects should not be ignored. (2) Spatial Durbin model (SDM) is applied to analyze technical influential effects on carbon dioxide emissions. Technical progress impacts itself in a negative way. Cleaner technical progress among provinces is dominated during the whole research period. Its indirect effects on neighbors are positive and insignificant. Total effect is close to zero. ‘L-L’-dominated spatial distribution of technical outputs is not beneficial for stimulating reduction effects by technical spillovers among provinces. (3) When regional technical development incentive policies are arranged to accelerate low-carbon transformation, green technical progress should be placed in the priority order. Their spatial optimization also puts more focus upon it. The Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions should be the first R&D centers to accelerate spatial transmissions.

Does Technical Progress Stimulate the Low-Carbon Transformation Process in China? A Provincial Aspect