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A core goal of visual neuroscience is to predict human perceptual performance from natural signals. Performance in any natural task can be limited by at least three sources of uncertainty: stimulus variability, internal noise, and suboptimal computations. Determining the relative importance of these factors has been a focus of interest for decades but requires methods for predicting the fundamental limits imposed by stimulus variability on sensory-perceptual precision. Most successes have been limited to simple stimuli and simple tasks. But perception science ultimately aims to understand how vision works with natural stimuli. Successes in this domain have proven elusive. Here, we develop a model of humans based on an image-computable (images in, estimates out) Bayesian ideal observer. Given biological constraints, the ideal optimally uses the statistics relating local intensity patterns in moving images to speed, specifying the fundamental limits imposed by natural stimuli. Next, we propose a theoretical link between two key decision-theoretic quantities that suggests how to experimentally disentangle the impacts of internal noise and deterministic suboptimal computations. In several interlocking discrimination experiments with three male observers, we confirm this link and determine the quantitative impact of each candidate performance-limiting factor. Human performance is near-exclusively limited by natural stimulus variability and internal noise, and humans use near-optimal computations to estimate speed from naturalistic image movies. The findings indicate that the partition of behavioral variability can be predicted from a principled analysis of natural images and scenes. The approach should be extendable to studies of neural variability with natural signals. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Accurate estimation of speed is critical for determining motion in the environment, but humans cannot perform this task without error. Different objects moving at the same speed cast different images on the eyes. This stimulus variability imposes fundamental external limits on the human ability to estimate speed. Predicting these limits has proven difficult. Here, by analyzing natural signals, we predict the quantitative impact of natural stimulus variability on human performance given biological constraints. With integrated experiments, we compare its impact to well-studied performance-limiting factors internal to the visual system. The results suggest that the deterministic computations humans perform are near optimal, and that behavioral responses to natural stimuli can be studied with the rigor and interpretability defining work with simpler stimuli.

Predicting the Partition of Behavioral Variability in Speed Perception with Naturalistic Stimuli