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In this paper we present a computational algorithm aimed at fitting a SEIR populational model to the influenza outbreaks incidence in Russian cities. The input data are derived from the long-term records on the incidence of acute respiratory diseases in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Novosibirsk. It is shown that the classical SEIR model could provide a satisfactory fit for the majority of employed influenza outbreak incidence data sets ( R  2  &gt; 0.91 for the 64 curves out of 67). Nevertheless, the model fitting algorithm in its current implementation has a number of drawbacks, which are discussed in the paper along with the ways of overcoming them.

Fitting the SEIR model of seasonal influenza outbreak to the incidence data for Russian cities