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A simple model of public good expenditure is developed where government service levels are affected by a potential insurgency. Counterinsurgency measures can reduce the effectiveness of resistance and alter the level of support for the government. In general, a very limited counterinsurgency is not useful; the government would rather alter the policy mix to reduce support for insurgents. In some cases, enhanced counterinsurgency capacity can lead to more rather than less resistance as the mix of projects adjusts to account for the lower effectiveness of resistance.

Winning Hearts and Minds: Public Good Provision in the Shadow of Insurgency