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The terms-of-trade shocks are not main source of business cycles in three post-communist countries (i.e., Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Croatia). The zero or negative reactions of the trade balance in terms-of-trade positive shocks in the countries exhibit the Obstfeld-Svensson-Razin effect, according to which the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler positive effect on terms-of-trade indicates that the smaller the trade balance, the more persistent the terms-of-trade shock is. The conclusions come from the structural vector autoregressive analysis of the cyclical components of terms-of-trade, trade balance, output, consumption, and investment in three post-communist countries.Šoki zaradi pogojev menjave v treh postkomunističnih državah, tj. v Slovaški, Češki republiki in Hrvaški, niso temeljni vir poslovnih ciklov. Ničelni ali negativni odzivi trgovinske bilance na pozitivne šoke zaradi pogojev menjave v državah kažejo Obstfeld-Svensson-Razinov učinek, za katerega velja, da manjši ko je Harberger-Laursen-Metzlerjev učinek pogojev menjave na trgovinsko bilanco, vztrajnejši je šok zaradi pogojev menjave. Zaključki izhajajo iz strukturne vektorske avtoregresijske analize cikličnih komponent pogojev menjave, trgovinske bilance, izložka, porabe in investicij v treh postkomunističnih državah

Impact of Terms-of-Trade on Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Croatia in the Short Run