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This paper expands the empirical analysis of hysteresis in trade in two directions. First, it uses disaggregate data for exports from Germany to the U.S. to minimise aggregation problems. Second, it introduces a new non-linear model to test for the non-linear parameter. The model is flexible in the functional form of hysteresis and it allows for testing weak vs. strong hysteresis and perfect hysteresis vs. strong persistence. The result shows that previous tests made too restrictive assumptions and by correcting them, hysteresis can be found in most of the sectors. Finally, it compares the results with proxies for possible explanations of hysteresis.

Hysteresis in Foreign Trade – A New Empirical Approach / Hysterese im Außenhandel – Ein neuer empirischer Ansatz