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We analyze individual career transitions of men and women in Germany. Our particular focus is on the association of upward, downward and horizontal job changes with individual fertility. In contrast to most of the literature, we focus on  potential  rather than  realized  fertility. Based on mixed multivariate proportional hazard models with competing risks, we find a significant negative relationship between the contemporaneous probability of having a child and horizontal career transitions for women and a positive significant association of the hazard of parenthood with upward career transitions for men. These effects persist when we apply fixed-effects panel data models allowing for correlation of individual parenthood hazards with unobserved individual characteristics. Our results suggest clear gender differences in the relationship between career patterns and potential fertility.

Potential Parenthood and Career Progression of Men and Women – A Simultaneous Hazards Approach