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Resumo: Os modelos de geracao de viagens, utilizados nos Estudos de Impacto de Trafego (EIT) de shopping centers , geralmente estimam volumes diarios medios anuais de veiculos atraidos. Neste artigo sao confrontados os volumes estimados por modelos referenciados na literatura com volumes veiculares observados em seis empreendimentos localizados na regiao metropolitana de Porto Alegre. Quando comparadas com as distribuicoes de volumes diarios de cada shopping center , as estimativas revelam erros expressivos. Modelos baseados apenas na Area Bruta Locavel (ABL) mostram-se incapazes de representar as diferencas entre os empreendimentos, indicando a necessidade da incorporacao de novas variaveis explicativas. Entende-se que as diferencas entre estimativas e valores observados estejam fortemente associadas ao poder aquisitivo dos clientes. O artigo propoe modelos nao-convencionais de geracao de viagens construidos com os dados dos shopping centers estudados. Entre os modelos estimados, o que incorpora a variavel "valor do aluguel" das lojas dos empreendimentos resultou nos menores erros de estimativa. Abstract: Trip generation models, applied in Traffic Impact Studies of shopping centers, usually estimate annual average daily volumes of attracted private vehicles. In this paper we confront volumes estimated by models referred in the literature with observed vehicular volumes of six shopping centers located within the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre, Brazil. When compared to the distributions of daily volumes of each shopping center, estimates reveal expressive errors. Models based only on gross leasing areas are unable to represent the differences between the shopping centers, suggesting the need to incorporate new explanatory variables. We understand that the differences between estimated and observed values are strongly associated to the income of the clients. The paper presents non-conventional trip generation models estimated with data from the shopping centers analyzed. Amongst the estimated models, the one that incorporates the variable "rental prices" of the shops resulted in the smaller estimation errors.

Modelos de geração e variabilidade no volume diário de veículos em shopping centers