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Chronic kidney disease of unknown origin (CKDu) is an epidemic concentrated in agricultural communities in Central and South America, including young, male sugarcane harvesters. The purpose of this analysis is to understand early changes in kidney function among a cohort of first-time sugarcane harvesters and to determine risk factors for kidney function decline.    Methods  Joint latent class mixed models were used to model sub-population kidney function trajectory over the course of 4 years (2012–2016). Probability weighted logistic regression was used to determine personal health, community, and individual behavior risk factors associated with sub-population assignment. Data analysis occurred in 2019.    Results  Of 181 new workers median age 19 years old (IQR: 4), 39 (22%) were identified as having non-stable kidney function with an annual age-adjusted decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of -1.0 ml/min per 1.73 m 2  (95% CI: -3.4, 1.3). Kidney function (OR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.93, 0.98), mild hypertension (OR: 5.21; 95% CI: 2.14, 13.94), and having a local home of residence (OR: 7.12; 95% CI: 2.41, 26.02) prior to employment in sugarcane were associated with non-stable eGFR sub-population assignment.    Conclusions  Mild hypertension may be an early indicator of the development of CKDu. A better understanding of preexisting risk factors is needed to determine why individuals are entering the workforce with reduced kidney function and elevated blood pressure and increased risk of renal function decline.

Longitudinal trends in renal function among first time sugarcane harvesters in Guatemala