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White-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus and collared peccary Pecari tajacu are the two native ungulates species present in the Bajo Balsas region. Both are very important from an ecological, social and economical perspective. Therefore, evaluate the effects of changes in land use on their distribution is basic for conservation and management proposes. In this paper we used the ecological niche modeling to generate an hypothetical scenario about the potential distribution of these two species in this region, then using geographic information systems we obtained some landscape metrics to evaluate how changes in land use affects these distributions; finally, we analyzed the protection provided by the Biosphere Reserve of Zicuiran-Infiernillo (RBZI) to these ungulates. The potential distribution of white-tailed deer covered an area of 5,321 km2 and the collared peccary of 5,762 km2. As a result of changes in land use both species lose in their potential distribution an area of 1,011 km2 and 1,303 km2, respectively. The RBZI protects approximately 36% of the distributions of these ungulates in Bajo Balsas. Considering the small patches sizes to maintain minimum viable populations, We suggest that the best strategy for the conservation of these species in this region is a scheme based on source-sink dynamics, taking as a source the RBZI and as a sink the management units (UMA) that are already established in the area.

Modelación de la distribución potencial y el efecto del cambio de uso de suelo en la conservación de los ungulados silvestres del Bajo Balsas, México