Open AccessRevealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data
Author(s) -
John Ojal,
Samuel Brand,
Vincent Were,
Emelda A. Okiro,
Ivy K. Kombe,
Caroline Mburu,
Rabia Aziza,
Morris Ogero,
Ambrose Agweyu,
George M. Warimwe,
Sophie Uyoga,
Adetifa Imo.,
Scott Jag.,
Edward Otieno,
Lynette Isabella OcholaOyier,
Charles N. Agoti,
Kadondi Kasera,
Patrick Amoth,
Mercy Mwangangi,
Rashid Aman,
Wangari Ng’ang’a,
Benjamin Tsofa,
Philip Bejon,
Edwine Barasa,
Matt J. Keeling,
D. James Nokes
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
wellcome open research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.298
H-Index - 21
ISSN - 2398-502X
DOI - 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.1
Subject(s) - pandemic , transmission (telecommunications) , covid-19 , serology , geography , virology , test (biology) , medicine , disease , biology , immunology , telecommunications , infectious disease (medical specialty) , computer science , antibody , pathology , paleontology
Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.