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Natural disasters of large scale such as typhoon, heat waves and snow storm have recently been increased because of climate change according to global warming which is most likely caused by greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Increase of greenhouse gases concentration has caused the augmentation of earth's surface temperature, which raised the frequency of incidences of extreme weather in northern hemisphere. In this paper, we present spatial analysis of future typhoon genesis based on IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 scenario, which applied latest carbon dioxide concentration trend. For this analysis, we firstly calculated GPI using RCP 8.5 monthly data during 1982~2100. By spatially comparing the monthly averaged GPIs and typhoon genesis locations of 1982~2010, a probability density distribution(PDF) of the typhoon genesis was estimated. Then, we defined 0.05GPI, 0.1GPI and 0.15GPI based on the GPI ranges which are corresponding to probability densities of 0.05, 0.1 and 0.15, respectively. Based on the PDF-related GPIs, spatial distributions of probability on the typhoon genesis were estimated for the periods of 1982~2010, 2011~2040, 2041~2070 and 2071~2100. Also, we analyzed area density using historical genesis points and spatial distributions. As the results, Philippines’ east area corresponding to region of latitude 10°~20° shows high typhoon genesis probability in future. Using this result, we expect to estimate the potential region of typhoon genesis in the future and to develop the genesis model.

Spatial Analysis of Typhoon Genesis Distribution based on IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 Scenario