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We analyze the timing and extent of Northern European temperature fallsduring the Little Ice Age, using standard temperature reconstructions. However,we can find little evidence of temporal dependence or structural breaks inEuropean weather before the twentieth century. Instead, European weatherbetween the fifteenth and nineteenth centuries resembles uncorrelated drawsfrom a distribution with a constant mean (although there are occasional decadesof markedly lower summer temperature) and variance, with the same behaviorholding more tentatively back to the twelfth century. Our results suggest thatobserved conditions during the Little Ice Age in Northern Europe are consistentwith random climate variability. The existing consensus about apparent coldconditions may stem in part from a Slutsky effect, where smoothing data givesthe spurious appearance of irregular oscillations when the underlying timeseries is white noise.

Change points and temporal dependence in reconstructions of annual temperature: Did Europe experience a Little Ice Age?