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Background  The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic forced the Dutch national screening program to a halt and increased the burden on health care services, necessitating the introduction of specific breast cancer treatment recommendations from week 12 of 2020. We aimed to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on the diagnosis, stage and initial treatment of breast cancer.Methods  Women included in the Netherlands Cancer Registry and diagnosed during four periods in weeks 2–17 of 2020 were compared with reference data from 2018/2019 (averaged). Weekly incidence was calculated by age group and tumor stage. The number of women receiving initial treatment within 3 months of diagnosis was calculated by period, initial treatment, age, and stage. Initial treatment, stratified by tumor behavior (ductal carcinoma in situ [DCIS] or invasive), was analyzed by logistic regression and adjusted for age, socioeconomic status, stage, subtype, and region. Factors influencing time to treatment were analyzed by Cox regression.    Results  Incidence declined across all age groups and tumor stages (except stage IV) from 2018/2019 to 2020, particularly for DCIS and stage I disease ( p  < 0.05). DCIS was less likely to be treated within 3 months (odds ratio [OR] wks2–8 : 2.04, OR wks9–11 : 2.18). Invasive tumors were less likely to be treated initially by mastectomy with immediate reconstruction (OR wks12–13 : 0.52) or by breast conserving surgery (OR wks14–17 : 0.75). Chemotherapy was less likely for tumors diagnosed in the beginning of the study period (OR wks9–11 : 0.59, OR wks12–13 : 0.66), but more likely for those diagnosed at the end (OR wks14–17 : 1.31). Primary hormonal treatment was more common (OR wks2–8 : 1.23, OR wks9–11 : 1.92, OR wks12–13 : 3.01). Only women diagnosed in weeks 2–8 of 2020 experienced treatment delays.    Conclusion  The incidence of breast cancer fell in early 2020, and treatment approaches adapted rapidly. Clarification is needed on how this has affected stage migration and outcomes.    Supplementary Information  The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13045-021-01073-7.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on diagnosis, stage, and initial treatment of breast cancer in the Netherlands: a population-based study