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Background  After sternotomy, the spectrum for sternal osteosynthesis comprises standard wiring and more complex techniques, like titanium plating. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive risk score that evaluates the risk of sternum instability individually. The surgeon may then choose an appropriate sternal osteosynthesis technique that is risk- adjusted as well as cost-effective.    Methods  Data from 7.173 patients operated via sternotomy for all cardiovascular indications from 2008 until 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Sternal dehiscence occurred in 2.5% of patients ( n  = 176). A multivariable analysis model examined pre- and intraoperative factors. A multivariable logistic regression model and a backward elimination based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) a logistic model were selected.    Results  The model showed good sensitivity and specificity (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, AUC: 0.76) and several predictors of sternal instability could be evaluated. Multivariable logistic regression showed the highest Odds Ratios (OR) for reexploration (OR 6.6, confidence interval, CI [4.5–9.5],  p  < 0.001), obesity (body mass index, BMI > 35 kg/m 2 ) (OR 4.23, [CI 2.4–7.3],  p  < 0.001), insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) (OR 2.2, CI [1.5–3.2],  p  = 0.01), smoking (OR 2.03, [CI 1.3–3.08],  p  = 0.001). After weighting the probability of sternum dehiscence with each factor, a risk score model was proposed scaling from − 1 to 5 points. This resulted in a risk score ranging up to 18 points, with an estimated risk for sternum complication up to 74%.    Conclusions  A weighted scoring system based on individual risk factors was specifically created to predict sternal dehiscence. High-scoring patients should receive additive closure techniques.

Development of a new sternal dehiscence prediction scale for decision making in sternal closure techniques after cardiac surgery