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Purpose  Associations between population-based screening, breast carcinoma detection modes and breast carcinoma death have not been studied using nationwide data at individual level. We evaluated these in Finland, where invitational age is gradually expanding from 50–59 to 50–69 years in 2008–2017. We also predicted breast carcinoma patterns in 2020 to assess the impact of changing invitational policy on breast carcinoma incidence and mortality.    Methods  The data included breast carcinomas in 2000–2010 (n = 48 040), and deaths due to these carcinomas (n = 4722). We divided carcinomas into those detected before or after the screening age, and those detected at the screening age. The latter was further divided into screen-detected and interval carcinomas, and carcinomas in the non-attendees. The prediction of future patterns was based on incidence data from the ten-year period 1998–2007 preceding the period of expanding invitational age in the national programme.    Results  Approximately 13% of in situ carcinomas were detected before, 29% after, and 57% at the screening age. In invasive cancers, the percentages were 16%, 42%, and 42%, respectively. At the screening age, more than half of invasive cancers were screening-detected, one quarter interval cancers, and one out of six cancers in the non-attendees. Almost 60% of breast cancer deaths were due to cancers detected after the screening age. By 2020, breast cancers detected at the screening age will increase from 42% to 65%, and breast cancers detected by screening from 23% to 38%.    Conclusions  The study demonstrates a novel approach to examine associations between breast carcinoma incidence and mortality within and outside population-based screening. The results show mammography screening having a distinct role in overall breast carcinoma incidence and mortality.    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/2193-1801-3-348) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Breast carcinoma detection modes and death in a female population in relation to population-based mammography screening