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Background  Japan has experienced two large changes which affect the supply and distribution of physicians. They are increases in medical school enrollment capacity and in the proportion of female physicians. The purpose of this study is to estimate the future supply of physicians by specialty and to predict the associated impact of increased female physicians, as well as to discuss the possible policy implications.    Methods  Based on data from the 2004 and 2006 National Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists, we estimated the future supply of physicians by specialty, using multistate life tables. Based on possible scenarios of the future increase in female physicians, we also estimated the supply of physicians by specialty.    Results  Even if Japan's current medical school enrollment capacity is maintained in subsequent years, the number of physicians per 1000 population is expected to increase from 2.2 in 2006 to 3.2 in 2036, which is a 46% increase from the current level. The numbers of obstetrician/gynecologists (OB/GYNs) and surgeons are expected to temporarily decline from their current level, whereas the number of OB/GYNs per 1000 births will still increase because of the declining number of births. The number of surgeons per 1000 population, even with the decreasing population, will decline temporarily over the next few years. If the percentage of female physicians continues to increase, the overall number of physicians will not be significantly affected, but in specialties with current very low female physician participation rates, such as surgery, the total number of physicians is expected to decline significantly.    Conclusion  At the current medical school enrollment capacity, the number of physicians per population is expected to continue to increase because of the skewed age distribution of physicians and the declining population in Japan. However, with changes in young physicians' choices of medical specialties and as the percentage of female physicians increases, patterns of physician supply will vary between specialties. Specialties less often chosen by young physicians and where males have dominated will face a decline in physician supply. These results highlight the necessity for developing a work environment that attracts female physicians to these types of specialties. This will also lead to improved gender equality in the workforce and more effective use of human resources.

Estimation of physician supply by specialty and the distribution impact of increasing female physicians in Japan