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A spindle system is one of the key subsystems of machine tools, whose reliability affects machining precision and production cycle directly. In the field, spindle systems expose to operating environmental conditions and complex working conditions that are referred to as stresses in this article collectively, which can accelerate or decelerate the process of failure. In order to analyze field reliability of spindle systems, the main structure, failure modes of spindle systems are analyzed, and main stresses involved with reliability are determined preliminarily. Then, based on the failure mode and the characteristics of stresses, a linear relationship of stresses and field reliability is built based on generalized Arrhenius models assuming that stresses are independent of each other. The non-linear, coupling relationship of stresses is described by a support vector machine model, whose parameters are selected by cross-validation. Then, two models are integrated to a composite model for minimum assessment error using optimal combined forecasting method. Finally, the proposed model is validated by a real case study, and the assessment errors conform to the production requirement.

A composite model of field reliability based on a generalized Arrhenius model and a support vector machine model for spindle systems