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Objective:   To describe the natural course of cigarette smoking and nicotine dependence (ND) over 1-year in daily smokers ages 15 to 17 living in different social contexts.Method:   Cigarette smoking and ND indicators were measured at baseline and 3- and 12-months thereafter among 95 daily smokers with a total of 123 observations from the Nicotine Dependence in Teens (NDIT) Study in Quebec, Canada, and in 111 daily smokers from the TABagisme chez les ADOlescents (TABADO) Study in Lorraine, France.Results:   NDIT and TABADO participants initiated smoking a mean (SD) of 3.9 (1.6) and 3.7 (2.0) years prior to baseline, respectively. Despite baseline differences in age, sex, age at initiation, number of cigarettes smoked per day and social context, 85% of participants in both samples reported cravings and responded “yes” to “felt like you really need a cigarette”. Mean (SD) number of cigarettes smoked per day increased from 9.4 (8.1) to 11.8 (8.0) over 1 year in NDIT (adjusted mean difference (95% CI) = 2.4 (0.8, 3.0)), and from 11.5 (6.5) to 13.5 (6.7) in TABADO (adjusted mean difference (95% CI) = 2.0 (0.8, 3.1)). However, most ND indicators in both samples were stable over time and cessation was infrequent.Conclusion:   Despite notable differences across samples, the natural course of cigarettes smoked per day, ND symptoms and cessation was similar, suggestive of an underlying biologic rather than social process. To quit, adolescents who smoke daily will likely need (pharmacologic) intervention to counter the biological mechanisms underpinning ND, as well as complementary strategies targeting the social context such as creating social environments favoring cessation success.

The Natural Course of Cigarette Smoking among Adolescent Daily Smokers in France and Quebec