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Given increasing computing power, an important question is whether additional computational resources would be better spent reducing the horizontal grid spacing of a convection-allowing model (CAM) or adding members to form CAM ensembles. The present study investigates this question as it applies to CAM-derived next-day probabilistic severe weather forecasts created by using forecast updraft helicity as a severe weather proxy for 63 days of the 2010 and 2011 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments. Forecasts derived from three sets of Weather Research and Forecasting Model configurations are tested: a 1-km deterministic model, a 4-km deterministic model, and an 11-member, 4-km ensemble. Forecast quality is evaluated using relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves, attributes diagrams, and performance diagrams, and forecasts from five representative cases are analyzed to investigate their relative quality and value in a variety of situations. While no statistically signif...

Comparison of Next-Day Probabilistic Severe Weather Forecasts from Coarse- and Fine-Resolution CAMs and a Convection-Allowing Ensemble