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Accurate prediction of mixed-phase precipitation remains challenging for numerical weather prediction models even at high resolution and with a sophisticated explicit microphysics scheme and diagnostic algorithm to designate the surface precipitation type. Since mixed-phase winter weather precipitation can damage infrastructure and produce significant disruptions to air and road travel, incorrect surface precipitation phase forecasts can have major consequences for local and statewide decision-makers as well as the general public. Building upon earlier work, this study examines the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model’s ability to forecast the surface precipitation phase, with a particular focus on model-predicted vertical temperature profiles associated with mixed-phase precipitation, using upper-air sounding observations as well as the Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) and Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) observations. The analyses concentrate on reg...

Examination of Mixed-Phase Precipitation Forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model Using Surface Observations and Sounding Data