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The genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010) is explored using analyses and forecasts from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that assimilates routinely collected observations as well as dropsonde measurements that were taken during the Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field campaign. A total of 127 dropsonde observations were collected from six PREDICT flight missions over a 5-day period before and during Karl’s genesis. EnKF analyses that take into account the PREDICT dropsondes provide a detailed four-dimensional overview of the evolving kinematic and thermodynamic structure within the pregenesis disturbance. In particular, the additional field observations are found to increase the low- and midlevel circulation and column moisture in the EnKF analyses and reduce the position error of the low-level vortex. Deterministic forecasts from these analyses show a 24-h improvement in predicting genesis over a control experiment that omits the dropsonde observations. I...

Predictability and Genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010) Examined through the EnKF Assimilation of Field Observations Collected during PREDICT