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Abstract The West Africa monsoon precipitation of the ECMWF operational Seasonal Forecast System (SYS3) is evaluated at a lead time of 2–4 months in a 49-yr hindcast dataset, with special attention paid to the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) special observation period during 2006. In both the climatology and the year 2006 the SYS3 reproduces the progression of the West Africa monsoon but with a number of differences, most notably a southerly shift of the precipitation in the main monsoon months of July and August and the lack of preonset rainfall suppression and sudden onset jump. The model skill at predicting summer monsoon rainfall anomalies has increased in recent years indicating improvements in the ocean analysis since the 1990s. Examination of other model fields shows a widespread warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias exceeding 1.5 K in the Gulf of Guinea throughout the monsoon months in addition to a cold bias in the North Atlantic, which would both tend to enhance rainfall over...

Seasonal Ensemble Predictions of West African Monsoon Precipitation in the ECMWF System 3 with a Focus on the AMMA Special Observing Period in 2006