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O texto utiliza series mensais da carga tributaria para subsidiar uma investigacao dos determinantes da sua evolucao recente. As estimativas mostram que a carga alcancou 33,4% do produto interno bruto (PIB) em 2014, que e um valor um pouco abaixo dos 33,6% de 2005, sem mostrar indicios de tendencia expansiva. Analisa-se tambem a politica tributaria do periodo que e caracterizada pelo predominio das desoneracoes.A partir destas constatacoes, o estudo dedica-se a explorar um paradoxo: por que a carga tributaria se manteve rigida as significativas desoneracoes no decenio 2005-2014? Sao investigadas as causas deste paradoxo por uma analise descritiva e uma modelagem econometrica de parâmetros variaveis. Os objetivos principais sao avaliar as trajetorias dos componentes das receitas tributarias, suas relacoes com as bases economicas de incidencia e possiveis influencias das desoneracoes nestas relacoes. This paper uses Brazilian monthly tax burden time series as an input for a study of its recent dynamic determinants. The estimates shows that tax burden reached 33,4% of GDP in 2014 that is lower than 33,6% of 2005 and without trend of growth. In addition, it presents an analysis of tax policy in Brazil that is characterized by tax cuts predominance. Based on this assumptions the paper is dedicated to a paradox: why is the tax burden growing in the presence of tax cuts during the decade 2005-2014? The causes of this paradox are investigated by a descriptive analysis and an econometric model with variable parameters. The main objectives are: to evaluate different trajectories of taxes by the economic base on which is levied, relations among taxing and economic bases and influences of tax cuts.

Tax cuts with stability of the Brazilian tax burden: what explains the puzzle of the decade 2005–2014?