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Distance learning universities usually afford their students the flexibilityto advance their studies at their own pace. This can lead to a considerablefluctuation of student populations within a program's courses, possiblyaffecting the academic viability of a program as well as the related requiredresources. Providing a method that estimates this population could be ofsubstantial help to university management and academic personnel. We describehow to use course precedence constraints to calculate alternative tuition pathsand then use Markov models to estimate future populations. In doing so, weidentify key issues of a large scale potential deployment.

A PROTOTYPE FOR EDUCATIONAL PLANNING USING COURSE CONSTRAINTS TO SIMULATE STUDENT POPULATIONS