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Karger (SIAM Journal on Computing, 1999) developed the first fully-polynomial approximation scheme to estimate the probability that a graph $G$ becomes disconnected, given that its edges are removed independently with probability $p$. This algorithm runs in $n^{5+o(1)} \epsilon^{-3}$ time to obtain an estimate within relative error $\epsilon$. We improve this run-time through algorithmic and graph-theoretic advances. First, there is a certain key sub-problem encountered by Karger, for which a generic estimation procedure is employed, we show that this has a special structure for which a much more efficient algorithm can be used. Second, we show better bounds on the number of edge cuts which are likely to fail. Here, Karger's analysis uses a variety of bounds for various graph parameters, we show that these bounds cannot be simultaneously tight. We describe a new graph parameter, which simultaneously influences all the bounds used by Karger, and obtain much tighter estimates of the cut structure of $G$. These techniques allow us to improve the runtime to $n^{3+o(1)} \epsilon^{-2}$, our results also rigorously prove certain experimental observations of Karger & Tai (Proc. ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms, 1997). Our rigorous proofs are motivated by certain non-rigorous differential-equation approximations which, however, provably track the worst-case trajectories of the relevant parameters. A key driver of Karger's approach (and other cut-related results) is a bound on the number of small cuts: we improve these estimates when the min-cut size is "small" and odd, augmenting, in part, a result of Bixby (Bulletin of the AMS, 1974).

Improved bounds and algorithms for graph cuts and network reliability