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A multi-model ensemble of regional climate projections is used to estimate the climate changesignal in terms of temperature and precipitation for the city of Aachen, Germany, until the end ofthe current century. Since the combination of heat and high moisture content in the ambient air isassumed to adversely affect human health, the equivalent temperature is employed as an indicator forheat stress and applied to identify heat waves. As prolonged periods of high temperatures may alsocause summer drought, summer precipitation and dry periods are analyzed as well.The study refers to regional climate projections (A1B emission scenario) of the statisticalclimate models STARII and WETTREG and the dynamical climate models REMO and COSMO-CLM. The modeloutputs are compared a) with each other in order to assess discrepancies between them andb) with the 30-year baseline period of 1971–2000 in order to estimate future changes inheat load and precipitation patterns for the summer months of June, July and August.Based on median realizations of the model runs, further warming of approximately1–2 K is expected by the middle of the 21st century and 3–4 Kby 2100. These changes will probably be accompanied by an increase in variance. Maximum temperatureshows the greatest enhancement (+1.9K$+1.9\,\text{K}$ 2031–2060 and4.3 K 2071–2100, ensemble mean) causing almost a doubling of (extreme) hot days and atrebling of tropical nights as soon as the middle of the century. According to this temperaturedevelopment heat waves are likely to last longer and occur more often in future whereas theirintensity is not expected to change significantly.An increasing number of heat waves is concurrent with a decreasing amount of rainfall in thesummer months until 2100. All four climate projections indicate a decrease in precipitation insummer until 2100 with -17%$-17\,{\%}$ on average. The highestdecrease is shown by COSMO-CLM with -30%$-30\,{\%}$ rainfall in June for theperiod of 2071–2100. Dry periods are expected to occur 3 times more often at the end ofthe current century and to last longer by 1 day (COSMO-CLM) to 3 days (WETTREG) comparedto the period of 1971–2000

Climate change signal of future climate projections for Aachen, Germany, in terms of temperature and precipitation