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Infectious diseases that spread silently through asymptomatic orpre-symptomatic infections represent a challenge for policy makers. Atraditional way of achieving isolation of silent infectors from the communityis through forward contact tracing, aiming at identifying individuals thatmight have been infected by a known infected person. In this work weinvestigate how efficient this measure is in preventing a disease from becomingendemic. We introduce an SIS-based compartmental model where symptomaticindividuals may self-isolate and trigger a contact tracing process aimed atquarantining asymptomatic infected individuals. Imperfect adherence and delaysaffect both measures. We derive the epidemic threshold analytically and findthat contact tracing alone can only lead to a very limited increase of thethreshold. We quantify the effect of imperfect adherence and the impact ofincentivizing asymptomatic and symptomatic populations to adhere to isolation.Our analytical results are confirmed by simulations on complex networks and bythe numerical analysis of a much more complex model incorporating morerealistic in-host disease progression.

Limited efficacy of forward contact tracing in epidemics