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Small islands in the vicinity of the mainland are believed to offerprotection from wind and waves and thus coastal communities have been developedin these areas. However, what happens when it comes to tsunamis is not clear.Will these islands act as natural barriers ? Recent post-tsunami survey data,supported by numerical simulations, reveal that the run-up on coastal areasbehind small islands was significantly higher than on neighboring locations notaffected by the presence of the island. To study the conditions of this run- upamplification, we solve numerically the nonlinear shallow water equations(NSWE). We use the simplified geometry of a conical island sitting on a flatbed in front of a uniform sloping beach. By doing so, the experimental setup isdefined by five physical parameters, namely the island slope, the beach slope,the water depth, the distance between the island and the plane beach and theincoming wavelength, while the wave height was kept fixed. The objective istwofold: Find the maximum run-up amplification with the least number ofsimulations. To achieve this goal, we build an emulator based on GaussianProcesses to guide the selection of the query points in the parameter space.

Can Small Islands Protect Nearby Coasts From Tsunamis? An Active Experimental Design Approach