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Modern radiotherapy technologies such as proton beam therapy (PBT) permit dose escalation to the tumour and minimize unnecessary doses to normal tissues. To achieve appropriate patient selection for PBT, a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model can be applied to estimate the risk of treatment-related toxicity relative to X-ray therapy (XRT). A methodology for estimating the difference in NTCP (∆NTCP), including its uncertainty as a function of dose to normal tissue, is described in this study using the Delta method, a statistical method for evaluating the variance of functions, considering the variance-covariance matrix. We used a virtual individual patient dataset of radiation-induced liver disease (RILD) in liver tumour patients who were treated with XRT as a study model. As an alternative option for individual patient data, dose-bin data, which consists of the number of patients who developed toxicity in each dose level/bin and the total number of patients in that dose level/bin, are useful for multi-institutional data sharing. It provides comparable accuracy with individual patient data when using the Delta method. With reliable NTCP models, the ∆NTCP with uncertainty might potentially guide the use of PBT; however, clinical validation and a cost-effectiveness study are needed to determine the appropriate ∆NTCP threshold.

journal of radiation research

Assessing the uncertainty in a normal tissue complication probability difference (∆NTCP): radiation-induced liver disease (RILD) in liver tumour patients treated with proton vs X-ray therapy