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Background The largest cities on the world face the unprecedented challenge of meeting the needs of a population that lives longer, has declining birthrates, and is altering the demographic profile on which social welfare programs have long been premised. This work is part of an international project aimed at comparing health and social care systems in megacities worldwide. We study access to healthcare in the metropolitan area of Milan to quantify avoidable hospital care and social inequalities within this world city, and compare Milan with other OECD megacities. Methods Two sources of data are combined: individual-level hospital discharge data to measure hospitalization for ambulatory-care sensitive conditions (ACSC), and municipality-level data collected from the national office for statistics. First, we performed an ecological analysis using a linear model for ACSC hospitalization rates to detect the risk factors in the municipality where the patient resides. Then, to identify both individual and area-level variations in population health, we use multilevel logistic regression model. Results Age-adjusted ACSC hospitalization rates continuously declined from 2005 to 2016, from 16% to 10.7%. Municipality-level risk factors include proportion of residents aged 65+ and proportion of foreigner residents. The individual-level predictors of ACSC hospitalization include being male, being single, having co-morbidities and low education. This association is only modestly attenuated when patient’s area-level characteristics are accounted. Conclusions We observed declining trends in ACSC hospitalizations and identified some patient’s as well as area-level characteristics related to avoidable hospitalization. Understanding whether ACSC hospitalization has dropped due to improvements in population health and access to healthcare or as part of the overall reduction in hospitalization rates needs to be further explored. Key messages Effective primary care can reduce hospitalization for preventable and chronic conditions. This work identifies individual and ecological factors related to avoidable hospitalization in urban settings. Policies to improve access to healthcare, tackle inequalities and reduce hospitalization costs may be more effective if targeted on individuals considering and the environment in which they live.

Avoidable hospitalization in Milan’s metropolitan area: inequalities and comparison with OECD cities