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Smoking prevalence in Italy decreased by 37% from 1980 to now. This is due to changes in smoking initiation and cessation rates and is in part attributable to the development of tobacco control policies. This work aims to estimate the age- and sex-specific smoking initiation and cessation probabilities for different time periods and to predict the future smoking prevalence in Italy, assuming different scenarios.

Predicting the future prevalence of cigarette smoking in Italy over the next three decades