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Lack of either spatial or temporal coverage in city-level carbon emissions analysis might curb our understanding of historical drivers and bring uncertain for future forecasting. To fill these gaps, we analyzed time-series energy-related industrial carbon emissions (EICE) from manufacturing over 99 cities nationwide during period of 2000 to 2015. We estimated these cities' EICE reduction potential up until 2030 by improving scenario design, which imposed constraints separately on different city groups based on historical drivers. Results indicated distinct changes of EICE around 2013 for the heavy manufacturing [HM], light manufacturing [LM] and high-tech development [HD] city groups and of emissions intensity for the energy production [EP] city group. The slowing economic growth would partly explain these transformations since 2013. Energy efficiency and industrial structure contributed most to these switches for EP and HD city groups, respectively, while energy mix and energy efficiency were also major contributors for HM and LM city groups. Given economic growth at a normal speed, EICEs will increase by 59%, 78%, 90% and 95% for EP, HM, LM and HD city groups, respectively from 2015 to 2030. Our scenarios show that energy efficiency improvement and industrial structure optimization will spur the EICEs to peak before 2030 and limit future EICE increase by 6.4% and 33.4% in 2030 for EP and HD city groups, respectively. This implies that energy efficiency improvement and industrial structure optimization are key emissions mitigation factors for EP and HD cities. Equally important, our study found more unclean fuel structure with higher coal share in HM and LM city groups than in other groups. It is therefore imperative to improve their energy efficiency and optimize energy and industrial structures in HM and LM cities. Results highlight the need to impose different constraints in scenario design and provide mitigation strategies at city level.

Retrospect driving forces and forecasting reduction potentials of energy-related industrial carbon emissions from China’s manufacturing at city level